Growth and growth boundary model with terms for melting salts to predict growth responses of Listeria monocytogenes in spreadable processed cheese.

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a growth and growth boundary model with terms for melting salts to predict growth of Listeria monocytogenes in spreadable processed cheese. Cardinal parameter terms for phosphate salts and citric acid were developed in broth studies and used to expand an available growth and growth boundary model. The expanded model includes the effect of nine environmental factors (temperature, pH, aw, lactic acid, acetic acid, citric acid, orthophosphate, di-phosphate and tri-phosphate). To generate growth data for model evaluation challenge tests with inoculated commercial (n = 10) and customized (n = 10) spreadable processed cheeses were performed. Evaluation of the new model by comparison of observed and predicted μmax-values resulted in a bias factor of 1.12 and an accuracy factor of 1.33 (n = 42). Prediction of growth and no-growth responses in processed cheese (n = 60) were 89% correct with 11% fail-safe and 0% fail-dangerous predictions. The developed model can be used to support product development, reformulation or risk assessment for spreadable processed cheese.