Coupling field observations, soil modeling, and air dispersion algorithms to estimate 1,3-dichloropropene and chloropicrin flux and exposure.

Soil fumigants are volatile compounds applied to agricultural land to control nematode populations, weeds, and crop diseases. Field trials used for measuring fumigant loss from soil to the atmosphere encompass only a small proportion of the near semi-infinite parameter combinations of environmental, agronomic, and meteorological conditions. One approach to supplement field observations uses a soil physics model for fumigant emission predictions. A model is first validated against existing field study observations and then used to extrapolate results to a wider range of edaphic and climatic conditions. This work compares field observations of 1,3-dichloropropene and chloropicrin emissions to predictions from the USDA soil model CHAIN_2D. Comparison between model predictions and field observations for a Florida and California study had values between 0.62 to 0.81 and 0.99 to 1.0 for discrete and cumulative emission flux, respectively. CHAIN_2D emission rates were then coupled to several USEPA air dispersion models (ISCST3, CALPUFF6) to extend emission estimates to near field air concentrations. CALPUFF6 predicted slightly higher 1-h maximum air concentrations than ISCST3 for the same source strength (26.2-36.0% for setbacks between 1 and 250 m from the field edge, respectively). A sensitivity analysis for the CHAIN_2D/ISCST3 coupled numerical system is provided, with several soil and irrigation parameters consistently the most sensitive. Changes in the depth of incorporation, tarp material, and initial soil water content illustrate the predicted impact to emission strength and resulting near-field air concentrations with reductions of cumulative emission loss from 8.1 to 71% and average 1-h maximum air concentration reductions between 6.2 and 41% depending on the mitigation strategy chosen. Additionally, a stochastic framework based on the published SOFEA system that couples variability in experiment, model sensitivity, and site specific attributes is outlined should regional air concentration estimates resulting from fumigant use be sought.