Identification of cell proliferation, immune response and cell migration as critical pathways in a prognostic signature for HER2+:ERα- breast cancer.

Multi-gene prognostic signatures derived from primary tumor biopsies can guide clinicians in designing an appropriate course of treatment. Identifying genes and pathways most essential to a signature performance may facilitate clinical application, provide insights into cancer progression, and uncover potentially new therapeutic targets. We previously developed a 17-gene prognostic signature (HTICS) for HER2+:ERα- breast cancer patients, using genes that are differentially expressed in tumor initiating cells (TICs) versus non-TICs from MMTV-Her2/neu mammary tumors. Here we probed the pathways and genes that underlie the prognostic power of HTICS. We used Leave-One Out, Data Combination Test, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA), Correlation and Substitution analyses together with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to identify critical biological pathways within HTICS. Publically available cohorts with gene expression and clinical outcome were used to assess prognosis. NanoString technology was used to detect gene expression in formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissues. We show that three major biological pathways: cell proliferation, immune response, and cell migration, drive the prognostic power of HTICS, which is further tuned by Homeostatic and Glycan metabolic signalling. A 6-gene minimal Core that retained a significant prognostic power, albeit less than HTICS, also comprised the proliferation/immune/migration pathways. Finally, we developed NanoString probes that could detect expression of HTICS genes and their substitutions in FFPE samples. Our results demonstrate that the prognostic power of a signature is driven by the biological processes it monitors, identify cell proliferation, immune response and cell migration as critical pathways for HER2+:ERα- cancer progression, and defines substitutes and Core genes that should facilitate clinical application of HTICS.