Moving away from methyl bromide: political economy of pesticide transition for California strawberries since 2004.

We examine the progress of the phaseout of the use of the pesticide methyl bromide in the production of California field strawberries. This phaseout is required under the Montreal Protocol and has been contentious in this sector, which receives exemptions from the schedule initially agreed under the treaty, and in international negotiations over the future of the Protocol. We examine the various ex-ante predictions of the impacts on growers, consumers and trade patterns in light of several years of declining allocations under the Critical Use provisions of the Protocol and the 2010 approval of iodomethane for use in California and subsequent 2012 withdrawal of this alternative from the US market. We find that, contrary to ex-ante industry claims, the years of declining methyl bromide use have been years of rising yields, acreage, exports, revenues and market share for California growers, even when faced with a global recession and increased imports from Mexican growers who retain the right to use the chemical under the Protocol. This has implications for the Protocol as a whole and for the remainder of the US phaseout of this chemical in particular.